Happy birthday to the bull market!
On October 13, 2025, the current bull market celebrated its third anniversary since the lows were hit in October of 2022. The S&P 500 has gained over 90% (total return) over the period – an impressive annualized return of approximately 25%. To put that in perspective, looking over the past 30 years, the three-year period ending in September 2025 ranks in the 91st percentile. The only other periods to see similar three-year annualized returns were during the bull market of the late 1990s, following the Great Financial Crisis, and following Covid.
Average bull markets
Going back to 1950, the average bull market lasts about five years with an average gain of 191%. Recently, looking at the last five bull market cycles, the average gain jumps to 285% over seven years, suggesting modern bull markets have become longer and stronger than older historical comparisons. Of course, no one knows when this bull market will end. However, the current cycle is relatively young in terms of both duration and magnitude compared to recent runs.
All-time highs
The bull market has pushed U.S. stocks to record levels. The S&P 500 closed at a record high 57 times in 2024 and 33 times year-to-date. Ironically, this can become an impediment to investors’ returns as they hesitate to invest new money and stay in cash on the sidelines. However, history suggests that investing at all-time highs on average is not a bad strategy because new highs are typically clustered together. In other words, market strength often begets more market strength.
Source: JPMorgan Guide to the Markets
The above chart from JPMorgan shows that returns from investing on any given day versus an all-time high are comparable and, in some cases, better when investing at market highs. Momentum can be a powerful force in the markets.
Economic Resilience and a Yellow Flag
The U.S. economy has remained resilient this year despite policy uncertainty, sticky inflation and geopolitical headwinds. Gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to grow by 3.9% according to the Atlanta Fed’s latest GDPNow forecast (as of 10/27/2025).
That said, the job market has been showing signs of slowing. Job growth has trended downward in recent months, with the unemployment number ticking up to 4.3% in August (which is still low by historical standards). We haven’t seen layoffs spike, which they typically do before a recession, so that is giving us some comfort in the underlying resilience of the job market. We’re keeping a close eye on it.
Thank you, as always, for allowing us to be of service. It is an honor and a privilege, and if there is anything we can do for you, please feel free to reach out.
With gratitude,
Anne, Atricia and your Curo Team