Hello, I hope this finds you well. Today is Friday, September 21, 2018 and in about 2 minutes I will share with you some stats about the official longest bull market ever.
This bull market was born on March 9, 2009, and as of August 22, 2018 is officially the longest bull market - overtaking the bull market of the 1990s. Now, even though this is the longest, it's not the greatest, at least not yet. The S&P 500 gained nearly 420% during the 1990s vs. the current bull standing of just over 320%. Still impressive gains. Even though we do see some potential stumbling blocks, we continue to believe this economy and stock market has more fuel in the tank.
So when I tell clients that this is now officially the longest bull market ever, they usually ask me how long I think it will last. And while I don’t have a crystal ball, LPL Financial, our broker-dealer, puts out a recession dashboard which looks at 12 separate inputs - such as employment, inflation, housing starts, and earnings and continues to suggest a very low probability of recession within the next 12 months. Additionally, one of my favorite economic indicators, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index or LEI is up nicely.
It's important to remember that bull markets do not die of old age - they die of excesses. We know that volatility is normal late in an economic and market cycles, and we expect more ups and downs over the rest of 2018, but that doesn't mean the bull market is over. There are many positives such as the combination of simulative fiscal policy, increasing government spending, robust corporate profits, strong consumer and business confidence, and low inflation that lead us to believe this economic expansion and bull market could potentially have years left to go.
Thank you as always for taking the time to watch this, and if you have any questions, feel free to reach out.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index, which used to be called the "Lehman Aggregate Bond Index," is a broad base index, maintained by Barclays Capital, which took over the index business of the now defunct Lehman Brothers, and is often used to represent investment grade bonds being traded in United States.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is comprised of 30 stocks that are major factors in their industries and widely held by individuals and institutional investors.
The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of the emerging market countries of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia.
The MSCI EAFE Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada.
The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an index of the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, including both government and corporate bonds.