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Tuesday, July 16, 2019

“Don’t fight the Fed.” — Marty Zwieg After Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony this week, it appears at least a 25 basis point (.25%) cut is in the cards on July 31. This...

 

Tuesday, July 2, 2019

After the worst fourth quarter since the Financial Crisis and worst December since the Great Depression, stocks have come roaring back. In fact, the S&P 500 Index gained 17.4% the first half of the year for its best start to a year...

 

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Here are five things that have caught our attention recently. Various stock markets around the globe are at new highs. “When you see places like Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Greece, Russia, and Switzerland all at or near new...

 

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Last week stocks enjoyed their best week since November 2018, boosted by increasing hopes of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. Unfortunately, stocks may not be in the clear yet, as trade tensions with China linger. “While the...

 

Tuesday, June 4, 2019

Well, it finally happened. The S&P 500 Index pulled back more than 5% from its all-time high, marking the first 5% pullback of 2019. As we have discussed many times over the past two months, the odds were high that some type of...

 

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Tuesday, May 28, 2019

With the bull market 10 years old and the economic cycle about to reach 10 years, the big question is how much longer can it go? To answer this question we will take a closer look at our Five Forecasters for late-cycle warnings....

 

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

“Compounding interest is the eighth wonder of the world.” Albert Einstein When should you start investing? Yesterday is one of the best answers we can think of. As Einstein stated in his quote, compounding interest can be...

 

Tuesday, May 7, 2019

What Can Star Wars Teach Us About Investing? Saturday, May 4, has been known throughout the galaxy as “Star Wars Day 2019.” That date was chosen because it’s a play on words of the famous Star Wars maxim, “May...

 

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

We wrote about the new record high for the S&P 500 Index Wednesday . This is such a big market event we wanted to share some additional thoughts—10 of them in fact—on this market milestone: The new high secured March 9,...

 

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Leading data released recently have confirmed the U.S. economy could be digging out of its soft patch. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 3.1% year over year in...

 

Tuesday, April 16, 2019

First quarter earnings season begins this week with some big banks reporting on Friday. While we think profit growth will finish around flat overall, an improving macro backdrop points to better growth ahead. We previewed the earnings...

 

Tuesday, April 9, 2019

Seven has been a lucky number for U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 Index just notched its first seven-day winning streak since October 2017. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this feat has occurred just seven other times in the current...

 

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

Seasonality could be on the bull’s side, especially after U.S. stocks’ best first quarter in 20 years. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, April has consistently been one of the strongest months for U.S. stocks. Over the...

 

Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Stocks have had quite a run since the December 24 lows, with the S&P 500 Index up 19% to within 5% of last year’s record highs. Given this move in stocks, we believe it is prudent to readjust domestic equity allocations back to...

 

Monday, March 18, 2019

Small cap stocks staged a furious rally to kick off 2019, with the Russell 2000 Index up nearly 18% year to date at the early March peak. Of course, you may remember that small caps were down much more than large caps at the end of...

 

Monday, March 11, 2019

This Saturday, March 9, 2019, marks the 10-year anniversary of the end to the worst bear market for U.S. stocks since the Great Depression. Although at that time no one could have imagined we’d be looking at the longest bull...

 

Monday, March 4, 2019

Slow but steady growth may win the race again as the economic expansion nears the 10-year mark. While muted growth in the current economic expansion has been frustrating at times, especially after a swift and painful downturn amid the...

 

Monday, February 25, 2019

What more can we say about the amazing rebound of the stock market since December 24? For the first time since 1997, the S&P 500 Index is up more than 10% for the year through this point in February. Of course, it was the worst...

 

Monday, February 18, 2019

“Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered.” Old Wall Street saying. The Chinese New Year (often called the Lunar New Year) kicked off Tuesday, February 5, and with it came the Year of the Pig. Although...

 

Sunday, February 10, 2019

What a year it has been. After the worst December for stocks in 87 years that contributed to the worst fourth quarter since the 2008–09 financial crisis, stocks have bounced back in spectacular fashion. In fact, with a day to go,...

 

Monday, January 28, 2019

The big bounce off the December 24 lows continued last week, as the S&P 500 Index added 2.9% for the week. In fact, it has gained 2.9%, 1.9%, 2.5%, and 2.9% over the past four weeks for a total gain of 10.5%. Of course, the S&P 500 did...

 

Monday, January 14, 2019

We’ve been hearing a lot of debate recently about the U.S. economy’s ability to withstand rising interest rates. However, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, current interest rates are historically low relative to the...

 

Monday, January 7, 2019

Friday’s jobs report for December offered little for investors to complain about with far more jobs created than expected. Nonfarm payrolls grew 312K last month, significantly above the median consensus estimate for a 184K...

 

Monday, December 24, 2018

The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced its fourth rate hike of the year, boosting the fed funds rate to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%. More importantly, policymakers lowered their expectations for future interest rate hikes in the new...

 

Monday, December 17, 2018

Investor confidence got a boost after President Donald Trump declared his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit December 1 “an amazing and productive meeting.” Both parties agreed to return to the...

 

Monday, December 10, 2018

Financial markets are desperately looking for direction these days. One issue rattling markets is the constant debate over the state of inflation. Inflationary pressures have accelerated this year, but over the past month, investors...

 

Monday, December 3, 2018

Since trade tensions between the United States and China escalated earlier this year, uncertainty relative to supply chains, input costs, global economic growth, and corporate profits has weighed on the financial markets. Indeed,...

 

Monday, November 26, 2018

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) is one of our favorite economic indicators. It is designed to predict future movements in the economy based on a composite of 10 economic indicators (like manufacturers’...

 

Monday, November 19, 2018

After the least volatile third quarter for the S&P 500 Index since 1963, volatility has come back in a big way over the past six weeks. One of the big themes from Outlook 2018: Return of the Business Cycle was to expect significantly...

 

Monday, November 12, 2018

This question is being asked a lot following last week’s midterm election results, in which the Republicans held onto the Senate and the Democrats claimed control of the House. In one sense, these results may not matter for U.S....

 

Monday, November 5, 2018

What a difference a week can make. Last Tuesday the S&P 500 Index closed at a new five-month low and there were many growing concerns. From China trade issues, to peak earnings, to slowing global growth, to a potential Federal Reserve...

 

Monday, October 29, 2018

It’s been a rocky ride so far in October, but there is a silver lining. “Incredibly, the S&P 500 during a midterm year has never finished lower if you bought the October low and held till the end of the year,”...

 

Monday, October 22, 2018

Third quarter earnings season is off to a good start, and we expect the good news from corporate America to continue throughout the reporting season, despite the narratives out there in the media about peak earnings and the risks...

 

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Hello, I hope this finds you well. Today is Tuesday, October 16, 2018 and in light of the recent market volatility, I would like to share some thoughts and perspective with you. I realize that volatility is painful, uncomfortable, and...

 

Monday, October 15, 2018

Third-quarter earnings season effectively kicks off today, and it should be another good one. S&P 500 Index companies are expected to report their ninth consecutive increase in profits and third consecutive quarter with earnings growth...

 

Monday, October 8, 2018

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) is one of our favorite economic indicators. It is designed to predict future movements in the economy based on a composite of 10 economic indicators (like manufacturers’...

 

Monday, October 1, 2018

Here it comes, the scary month of October. Many investors have bad memories of this month, mainly because it has had some spectacular crashes. In particular, 1929, 1987, and 2008 are a few of the years that saw October scar investors...

 

Monday, September 24, 2018

It took nearly eight months, but the Dow finally closed at a new all-time high for the first time since late January. Various other indexes have been making new highs for a while now, which begs the question: What does it mean for...

 

Friday, September 21, 2018

Hello, I hope this finds you well. Today is Friday, September 21, 2018 and in about 2 minutes I will share with you some stats about the official longest bull market ever. This bull market was born on March 9, 2009, and as of August 22...

 

Monday, September 17, 2018

On behalf of the LPL Research team, our thoughts go out to the millions of people who will be impacted by Hurricane Florence. We’ve had many requests this week to look at how equities do around major hurricanes and, using data...

 

Monday, September 10, 2018

Mark your calendars, because S&P GICS sectors are scheduled to undergo one of their most significant makeovers in history. Effective September 28, S&P Dow Jones Indices will make significant changes to its Global Industrial...

 

Monday, September 3, 2018

Well, here it comes—September. It’s widely considered the worst month of the year for equities for good reason, since it has historically performed the worst. Per Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist, “September is...

 

Monday, August 27, 2018

After a healthy start to the year, emerging markets (EM) have struggled, given tariff concerns and a stronger U.S. dollar. Most recently, Turkey’s diplomatic and political struggles have devolved into a currency crisis that has...

 

Monday, August 20, 2018

Last week’s inflation data showed that pricing pressures are at their strongest point of the economic cycle. To us, these reports are much less alarming than their headline readings suggest. While signs of price and wage...

 

Monday, August 13, 2018

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced last Wednesday that it would keep interest rates unchanged, a decision that markets largely expected. However, the FOMC upgraded its view of the economy to characterize it as growing...

 

Monday, August 6, 2018

One of the more popular narratives we’ve heard this year is that only a few large stocks are pulling the overall market higher. We don’t agree with this assessment, and have cited several metrics over the last few months...

 

Monday, July 30, 2018

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.1% in the second quarter, slightly below consensus expectations for 4.2% growth. However, as our LPL Chart of the Day shows, the print was one of the highest of the business cycle thanks to...

 

Monday, July 23, 2018

The S&P 500 Index is on a three-month winning streak, and more gains may be in store for bulls. As shown in our LPL Chart of the Day, in the last 15 instances when the S&P 500 has closed higher in April, May, and June (like 2018 just...

 

Monday, July 16, 2018

Second-quarter earnings season kicks off this week, and S&P 500 companies are expected to report an eighth consecutive increase in quarterly profits. Consensus estimates are calling for a 21% year-over-year increase for the quarter,...

 

Monday, July 9, 2018

July is a month that usually doesn’t have a lot of news and many market participants are on vacation, but stocks tend to do well. “Wall Street might hit the beach, but stocks are going to work. In fact, over the past 10...

 

Monday, July 2, 2018

Hello, I hope this finds you well and enjoying the summer so far! Today is Friday, June 29, 2018 and I will share some thoughts on the current trade tensions. It’s not news to anyone that trade tensions have been at least partly...

 

Monday, July 2, 2018

May and June historically have tripped up stocks, which makes 2018 all the more interesting as both of those sometimes troublesome months were in the green. As LPL Research Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick explained, “When...

 

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Though it comes as no surprise, escalating trade tensions have made for a difficult investing environment. “We believe fiscal stimulus will offset proposed tariffs and that tensions between the U.S and China will not devolve...

 

Monday, June 4, 2018

With last week’s news that Italy has formed a government, securing the country’s place in the Eurozone, at least in the short term, are European stocks now attractive? Relative to other choices, namely the U.S. and emerging...

 

Tuesday, May 29, 2018

What a year 2018 has been for small caps. With the Russell 2000 Index up about 6% year to date versus the S&P 500 Index up only 2%, it has been quite the year so far for small companies. Tax reform is the big tailwind for the group,...

 

Monday, May 21, 2018

Solid economic growth should be good news for emerging market (EM) stocks, which have historically done well when economic growth in EM has accelerated relative to that of developed economies. Economic growth in emerging economies is...

 

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

The peak earnings narrative has garnered significant attention this earnings season—in part because of a comment by Caterpillar’s management stating that the first quarter may have been the “high-water mark” for...

 

Wednesday, May 9, 2018

We’ve seen a recent data deluge covering jobs, inflation, and business activity, not to mention a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting. Economic reports were solid but not so strong that the Fed would accelerate its interest-rate...

 

Tuesday, May 1, 2018

One of the most popular investment sayings is about to take over the airwaves: “Sell in May and Go Away.” The reason for the concern is that the upcoming six months (from May until the end of October) has historically been...

 

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Earth Day was celebrated on Sunday, April 22, 2018, and this environmentally focused holiday may have some investors thinking about how the companies they invest in impact the world around us. Labels such as socially responsible...

 

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

The S&P 500 Index continues to find support near its 200-day moving average and recently bounced near the early February lows. Additionally, the retest of the February lows took place on lower volume, which is a positive sign that we...

 

Tuesday, April 10, 2018

First quarter earnings season kicks off this week with several financial companies reporting results on April 12–13, and we are expecting another strong quarter of results. The S&P 500 Index has grown earnings at a double-digit...

 

Tuesday, April 3, 2018

Stocks fell slightly in the first quarter, losing 0.8% and ending the S&P 500’s nine quarter win streak. The return of volatility was the big story of the quarter, when the index suffered its first 10% correction since early 2016...

 

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Escalating trade tensions disrupted markets last week, particularly on Thursday and Friday when the S&P 500 Index lost about 5% over the two-day span, wiping out the index’s gains for the year. Here we summarize the latest...

 

Friday, March 16, 2018

Hello, I hope this finds you well. Today is Friday, March 16, 2018, and in this blog I will answer the question “is a recession coming soon???” It’s been a while since I have written about the Five Indicators on a...

 

Monday, March 5, 2018

As it turns out, while many people in the United States like to wear green in March to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day—green can also play into the potential positive returns for the S&P 500 Index, thanks to seasonal patterns,...

 

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Fourth quarter earnings season has been outstanding, but as good as it has been, perhaps most impressive is the strong guidance corporate America has provided. That positive message has translated into a more than 7% increase in...

 

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

The potential for rising inflation has been on the collective mind of market participants in recent weeks, following a larger than expected uptick in wage inflation in the January employment report, which is widely reported as one of...

 

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

The S&P 500 Index officially pulled back into correction territory last week for the first time since early 2016. The widely accepted definition of a correction is a 10% decline from the most recent high. What made this correction so...

 

Monday, February 5, 2018

An old adage on Wall Street suggests, “So goes January, goes the year.” With stocks seeing one of the best January returns ever, it is time to take a closer look at the January barometer. The January barometer was first...

 

Monday, January 29, 2018

Equities were met with tremendous success during the first year of President Trump’s term, but now we’re headed into the much more historically troublesome midterm year. As Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist notes,...

 

Monday, January 22, 2018

Fourth quarter earnings season is in full swing and expectations remain high for U.S. companies. We discussed some of the reasons behind those expectations last week, and today we will take a look at the sectors that are driving...

 

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Speculation that China could be looking to reduce or even halt its U.S. Treasury purchases going forward has flooded media outlets recently and spooked investors. Following the news Treasury yields were sent to more than 10-month highs...

 

Friday, January 5, 2018

The new tax law has important implications for major corporations, small businesses, and individual taxpayers, and will likely shift the trajectory for economic growth, the federal budget, monetary policy, and perhaps most critically...

 

Tuesday, January 2, 2018

As you know, major tax reform legislation has made it through the House and Senate, and is heading to President Trump’s desk for his signature soon. In an effort to keep you informed, we put together a list of the top 10 changes...

 

Tuesday, December 26, 2017

The 10-year Treasury yield had been trading within a historically tight range of just under 0.1% since late October (the tightest trading range of that length since 1974, as outlined in our recent Bond Market Perspectives,...

 

Tuesday, December 19, 2017

With the S&P 500 Index flirting with a gain of 20% for the year, one technical formation took place in 2016 that was a clue that we could be in for solid gains. But before we get to that, below are some of our blog posts from earlier...

 

Monday, November 27, 2017

The 2017 holiday shopping season has begun. That means Black Friday deals, long checkout lines, and a focus on the retail industry as investors try to determine the potential impacts to the stock market. The National Retail Federation...

 

Friday, November 17, 2017

As we head into Thanksgiving week, investors have many things for which to be thankful; from a global bull market in equities, led partly by a strong resurgence in corporate earnings, to very few signs of a recession starting over the...

 

Monday, November 13, 2017

The Nasdaq has closed at more new all-time highs in 2017 than in any other year in history—as Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, discussed with Brian Sullivan on CNBC Trading Nationearlier this week. Although that’s...

 

Thursday, November 9, 2017

Following up on our previous post, let’s drill down on the three components of the Life Portfolio that represent the most important parts of a household’s finances: income, debt, and assets. Examining your financial...

 

Monday, November 6, 2017

The health of the broad U.S. economy impacts all Americans; but for most people, thinking about the economy starts with their personal financial situation. When it comes to your finances, you may be saying to yourself, “I’m...

 

Monday, October 16, 2017

According to the Bloomberg World Interest Rate Probability function, the current implied probability for a fed funds rate hike in December remains high at 77% (as of October 11, 2017). If this happens, it will be the third year in a...

 

Monday, October 2, 2017

There have only been eight moves of at least 1% for the S&P 500 Index so far this year—the least since 13 in 1995. The all-time record was an incredible three in 1963. What about a big move? The last time the S&P 500 moved at...

 

Monday, September 25, 2017

Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, released last week, made headlines after its 1.9% year-over-year headline increase in prices exceeded expectations of 1.8%. This was significant given that the last five monthly CPI reports...

 

Monday, September 11, 2017

September has averaged a -1% return for the S&P 500 Index since 1928*—the worst performance of any month, as noted in last week’s blog. However, although September has historically been a weak period for stocks, bonds have...

 

Wednesday, May 3, 2017

Today we will discuss a brief overview of the market performance in the first quarter, and I will “nerd out a bit” on the current divergence we are seeing between the “hard” and “soft” data. I will explain…stay with me! Stocks had a strong

 

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Posted by lplresearchPresident Trump’s 100th day in office is right around the corner on April 29. This coincides with a potential government shutdown; so all of this, coupled with the French elections this weekend, could make the remaining

 

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Stocks started off the year on a positive note around the globe. Here in the U.S., the S&P500 returned 1.9% following December's 2% gain. January's gains continued the market's impressive consistent run up, with gains in 10 of the p

 

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Happy new year! I hope you had a great holiday season.As we mentioned in our most recent blog “Key Takeaways from 2016”, last year was quite a year… on many fronts. Undoubtedly, there were a few low probability events which were expected

 

Friday, January 6, 2017

Happy New Year, and welcome to 2017! I hope you had a lovely holiday season with your family.Wow! 2016 is in the books, and what a year it was (for the markets, for global events, and for the U.S.). Being that this time of year is a great

 

Wednesday, December 28, 2016

As we presented in the below image, stock market gains tend to happen when the economy is mid-cycle (mid-cycle years are highlighted). This increases the odds of higher equity prices next year, but it is worth noting 2017 is also the first

 

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

The month of November is in the books. We came into the month with the longest Dow losing streak in 35 years and many concerns over the U.S. presidential election. In the end, the fears didn’t materialize and equities had a big move higher.

 

Friday, November 11, 2016

Donald Trump has completed his landmark quest and will become the nation’s 45th President after a contentious and often divisive campaign. In addition, the Republican Party has retained control of both houses of Congress. This outcome marks

 

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Hello, I hope this finds you well! Today I will share with you a brief overview of the markets in the third quarter, and I will explain why we actually have been in a recession.

 

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Yesterday kicked off the homestretch of 2016, as there were 50 trading days left in 2016. The good news is historically the end of the year has been strong for equities. In fact, going back to 1980, the S&P 500 was up 3.6% on average an

 

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Hello Everyone! Today, I will share with you a brief overview of the markets last month, and will provide some insights as to what the presidential election in November could mean for the markets.

 

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

We have been getting an increasing number of questions about what a Donald Trump victory in November’s presidential election might mean for markets. There are several reasons for that, including a closer race, the proximity to the first deb

 

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

I attended our broker-dealer’s (LPL Financial) annual conference in San Diego last month, along with 5,999 of my closest friends in the business. I make it a priority to attend these conferences for a few reasons. : (1) they are chock-

 

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Reston, Virginia – September 6, 2016 – Anne Triana with Curo Private Wealth has been selected as a “Five Star Wealth Manager” in the Washington DC Area by Five Star Wealth Professionals. She will appear in the October issue of Washingt

 

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Watch Anne's talk with The Dating Advisory Board.

 

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

We will share with you a brief overview of the markets last month, and answer the question : is the US stock market overvalued?

 

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Despite the unexpected Brexit vote in June, which caused a lot of volatility, the S&P 500 was up 2.5% for the second quarter. The gains were driven by the continued recovery in the oil market, which drove crude prices more than 25%

 

Thursday, May 12, 2016

Reston, Virginia – April 11, 2016 - Curo Private Wealth has been awarded as “One of the Top Money Advisers of 2016” by Washingtonian magazine, a popular monthly magazine distributed in the Washington DC area.